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Competitive Ashes series on the cards

July 1 - 7, 2009
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It is now only one week until the Ashes begin in Cardiff and memories of that golden summer in 2005 are fresh in the mind again.

It is very doubtful that the heady heights of that series will be repeated but I am still expecting a tight affair with a fair amount of tension.

Both sides are very different to the ones that contested those matches and, in particular, it is the change in personnel of the tourists that demands scrutiny and, most significantly, it is the absence of Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath. These two men did more damage than any other bowling pair in history - in tandem they were a unique force and it could be argued that had McGrath not stepped on a ball and ruled himself out of the second Test then the 2005 result may have been very different.

Also gone are Hayden and Gilchrist, two of the most destructive batsmen of the modern era along with Justin Langer who moulded himself in to the consummate opening batsmen. So who have the Australians found to fill these very large shoes?

Mitchell Johnson is first up, the fast bowling left armer who will lead the attack alongside Brett Lee. This will be his first Ashes series as he was 12th man during the 2006 series in Australia but since then his record is very impressive.

He has played 21 Tests and taken 94 wickets at an average of 28 which is very respectable. In the recent series against South Africa he took 16 wickets and was voted man of the series so he comes in good form as well.

However, it is not just the ball he is good with, as he has also been scoring runs freely and averages 35 with a top score of 123 not out in the third Test match of the series against South Africa.

There are a few English top order batsmen who would be looking on with envy at this record. If he performs to this level and gets his new in-swinging yorker to the right handers, going in favourable English conditions, then he may well be the deciding factor throughout the summer.

It is not so clear cut a replacement in the spin department, and to be honest replacing Warne would have been impossible anyway, but this responsibility goes to Nathan Hauritz who has played only four Test matches.

He knows he will be targeted by Kevin Pietersen but, unlike Warne who could bowl to any approach, most spinners are better when the batsmen are attacking them, so this may well play into his hands.

Another who will get his chance is wicketkeeper Brad Haddin who has been waiting for ever for Gilchrist to retire and in his first 15 Tests he averages over 37 with a top score of 169, so again another very respectable record.

These players may well be at the start of their careers but they have beaten South Africa away and, alongside Ponting and batting sensation Hughes, they are still a very formidable outfit and one that should be confident of doing well this summer.

England, meanwhile, are also a very different side and if Flintoff manages to get fit he will be the only surviving bowler from that series.

England have finally realised, although it took them too long to do so, that they would have to stop trying to get that team back together and move on to the next generation. Broad, Anderson, Swann and Rashid are those players and they will get their chance and only time will tell if they are good enough to step up to the plate and regain the Ashes for England.

This is a very even series, and whereas before Australia could still win when they were not at their best, this time it will be the team that performs on the day that will prove victorious.

The toss will also be vital as any side batting first will have a distinct advantage, so watch out for the gloomy look on one captain's face as the coin comes down, as this will tell who will be batting first.

This is not an easy series to predict but I still take Australia to come out as winners.

But, it will be competitive and expect lots of results rather than draws, so maybe 3-1 to the tourists to avenge that 2005 defeat although the editor disagrees and expects to be smiling broadly amongst his Australian friends throughout the summer.







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