It’s still smoke and mirrors

Official testing may have come to a close but the teams are still a long way from learning how to get the best from their cars to the extent that, at the first free practice in Melbourne in just nine days, the introduction of yet more new car updates will render this another information-gathering exercise.

Reliability was the key issue last season with Pirelli’s tyres repeatedly questioned. This season it has been the Energy Recovery Systems (ERS) that have been difficult to harness.

With only three engine manufacturers supplying all the teams, the choice of provider has been paramount.

Those selecting Mercedes have been topping both the time sheets and total laps – the latter being crucial in assimilating the data that will allow teams to understand the performance of the cars at various stages of the race.

Mercedes themselves have, unsurprisingly, been the best of these teams, although they are understandably coy, having suffered a number of breakdowns themselves, most notably with the gearbox.

Unfamiliarity with new equipment and the complexity of design has meant that minor changes have resulted in long delays to replace parts, ensuring that teams have been grateful for the favourable weather conditions experienced at the two tests conducted in Bahrain.
 
Furthermore, the data gathered is more in keeping with the European summer temperatures in which the majority of races will be held, with some days also mirroring those expected in Melbourne next week.

The disparity in top-line performance and reliability has seen a welcome shake-up of the F1 pecking order.

Nostalgic followers, particularly those who witnessed the launch of their 2005 model at the BIC, will be delighted to see Williams threatening the podium. While Pastor Maldonado secured them their last win in 2012 ending an eight-year hiatus, historians have to delve back to 1997 for the last time they secured the constructors’ championship, it being their ninth.

This slide saw them become a testing ground for young hopefuls entering the F1 arena, including Jenson Button and Mark Webber.

After the difficulties that have blighted his career, many will also be thrilled that Felipe Massa is back with a chance at the front of the grid as he heads the Williams charge, with team-mate Valterri Bottas, the young hotshot selected by Sir Frank Williams, who is back in charge of his team.

Another team to benefit is Force India. Sergio Perez, seeking redemption after having been cast aside by McLaren, topped the timesheets on two days of testing while also managing to accumulate significant mileage.

One disappointment has been McLaren who started brightly in Jerez although faded in their second home at the BIC due to a series of reliability issues. While they are expected to add enhancements for Australia it would be a surprise to see them make much difference at this stage of the season.

Red Bull’s woes with its Renault engine have been well publicised, not only in terms of reliability but also its inability to operate at a high temperature, leading to regular overheating problems. The team has had to fight a number of fires, physical and metaphorical. 

However, the team’s success in recent seasons, the size of its budget and the quality of personnel means main rivals are not writing Infiniti Red Bull off just yet.

Social media has been buzzing with the prospects of Red Bull introducing upgrades during an additional day of filming at the BIC, although realistically it is unlikely that they can find an additional three seconds per lap to make the drivers more competitive.

This poor performance allied to Honda’s return to F1 in 2015 and Red Bull’s contract with Renault due to expire in 2016 has led to some interesting rumours about the direction last season’s winners will take. In order to save costs, engine development has now been frozen, although will the FIA really allow one supplier to suffer for a whole season, despite any amendments requiring a unanimous consensus from all teams?

Of the Renault-supplied teams, Caterham managed to solve their initial difficulties in the final two days although failed to challenge the leaders.

While qualification specifications have allowed times to climb to within one second of last season’s, timings on full race runs have been, on average, eight seconds slower.

The other intriguing dynamic in testing has been the relationship, in conjunction with the new engines, between the reduced down-force available (as a result of changes to the front wing and nose) and the fuel being limited to 100kg per car.

Complex electrical systems allied to the turbo-charged engine have increased the immediate torque available to drivers meaning that the men behind the wheel have had to learn how to adapt. While the high volume of fires has been well publicised, there have also been a number of spins, despite Pirelli producing a wider contact point.

Furthermore, the fuel limit may see drivers more conservative to ensure they complete the race, which could reduce the temperatures required to have the tyres performing at their optimum. Therefore, don’t expect to see Pirelli out of the headlines for long!

According to the editor of this newspaper, who was trackside at the weekend, race fans will also notice the noise level appears to have been drastically reduced too.

Heading to Australia next week Mercedes are the clear favourites having led the single lap times (set on soft tyres while their rivals were on super-soft), race-length speeds and the most laps. Ferrari fared well in comparison to Williams and Force India on the longer runs although some believe they are as much as 75bhp behind the Mercedes engine.

However, at this stage of the season, reliability will be the crucial component. Top speed and driver consistency could therefore be reduced to bit-part players with the potential for early races to be reduced to a lottery if teams push beyond the limits.