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If you want to predict goals, follow the money, say German economists who have used footballers’ value to predict a Spain-Germany World Cup Final.
Researchers from the DIW Institute in Berlin based their model on the market value of each team, using the transfer fees of the players.
If their prediction is correct the Spanish would be the slight favourites. But it has been a long time since the chances of the German team have been this good in a World Cup, said Gert Wagner, one of the economists behind the study.
Wagner and his two colleagues from DIW – one of the best-known economic research institutes in Germany – have dubbed their system ‘money scores the goals’.
“No other market is as transparent – or as global – as international football,” Wagner added.
The economists say their prediction is based on a model that successfully predicted the Italian victory in 2006 World Cup, and Spain’s triumphs in the last three major football tournaments – the World Cup in 2010 and the European Championships in 2008 and 2012.
However, they said this year the predictions have been more complicated than normal, as the values of the best teams are very similar.
With only one day to go until the World Cup kicks off in Brazil, guesswork is reaching fever pitch.
Earlier, economists at Goldman Sachs used statistics to predict that hosts Brazil should take the trophy.
While Goldman used past performances to make its predictions, ING tried to forecast which team will win the tournament based on the quality of its players, measured by the market value of the squad. To determine each team’s market value, ING used the transfer value of each member of the 23-man squads.
Of course, this technique suffers from limitations. Transfer fees are dictated by factors other than the player’s skill on the field. How much time is left on the player’s contract, the resale value, and the willingness of clubs to do a transaction are among factors that influence what a team pays to pry a player away from the clutches of another.
With that caveat out of the way: Which national team has the highest market capitalisation? Reigning champions Spain, followed by Germany and Brazil. ING has used the transfer value of each member of the 23-man squad to make its calculations.
There is an element of guesswork as well. ING estimated the value of Argentina’s Lionel Messi, currently playing for Barcelona in Spain, at €130 million (BD67 million). That is more than five times the value of the entire Iranian and Honduran squads and more than what any football club has yet paid for one player.
The ING report also offers up a unique barometer for measuring which country has the most passionate fans: The amount of money that a fan would give up, on average, to ensure that his or her country would win the World Cup.
So who has the most passionate fans by that measure? Chile. Fans there would sacrifice BD270 for their nation to win the World Cup.
Even world-famed Cambridge University physicist Stephen Hawking has taken a shot at predicting a winner.
Hawking, who is nearly paralysed by motor neurone disease, put his money on Brazil in a commentary hammering his native England’s chances.
“You would be a fool to overlook Brazil,” said the author of A Brief History of Time who is more used to looking into the origin of the universe than predicting the outcomes of football matches.
The last World Cup made an unlikely star of a rather less academic pundit in Paul the octopus.
The tentacled oracle successfully predicted the outcome of eight matches by choosing a mussel or oyster from one of two boxes bearing the flags of competing nations. He died in 2010.
* See Pages 12 & 13: Abu George’s World Cup round-up
