Easy come, easy go

Football has settled down into its annual rhythm again as all the major European leagues are well underway.

The Champions and Europa leagues have kicked off, great goals have been scored, wild predictions been made and of course, managers are already being considered for sacking. One call for a manager and club to part ways recently has really caught my eye, mainly for how ridiculous it is.

I find it a curious thing in football, how quickly a manager finds himself under pressure in a football club, I get that a string of bad results changes mood and feel but how much difference does sacking a manager really make? Is it really beneficial in the long run and at what cost?

The example, Tottenham manager, Mauricio Pochettino has found himself under an increased amount of pressure in recent weeks following poor results against Newcastle, Leicester and Olympiakos. To me the idea that the man who, only a few months ago, took Tottenham to places they should never have been and will probably not be again for a long time would be considered as anything less than a hero is absurd. Tottenham fans are suffering from the same overestimation of themselves that everyone suffers from, 90 per cent of all people who drive think they are above average, Tottenham have been to a Champions League final and think that is where they belong.

The truth of the matter is that 90 per cent of team standings can be attributed to amount each team has spent on players’ wages, a study by Stefan Szymanski detailing predicted position of Premier League based upon money spent on wages from 2000-2015 shows this.

You could in theory, accurately predict the placings of 18/20 Premier League teams with a set of figures in front of you. The study found that only exceptional managers and horrendous managers really made any real impact on where a team finished and it was not as easy to identify those managers as you may first think. Arsene Wenger was still an exceptional manager despite his trophy drought in that period whilst Slaven Bilics time at West Ham was perhaps worse than first comes to memory. In fact, only 10 per cent of all top flight managers made any real difference. Pochettino is exceptional and Tottenham fans would do well to recognise this.

A big problem with the want of clubs to simply cut and swap their manager is who they replace them with and at what cost to the club is it to make them successful. Pochettino may not be the most satisfied manager in the world when it comes to the success rate of landing his transfer targets but it is undeniably a Tottenham team in his mould. Any manager that comes in to replace him at this point would want a transfer budget to remould. That could mean Tottenham a year down the line finding themselves with no Harry Kane, Christian Erikson or Heung Min Son, all of whom have left because they don’t want to play for the new manager and because the club needs funds. Tottenham could end up spending hundreds of millions and be in a worse position than the one they find themselves currently.

The next part of that conundrum is who would they even replace Pochettino with? If only 10 per cent of managers even make a difference and Tottenham already have one of the 10 per cent then how likely is it that they will improve upon him? It’s not like they can go and poach any manager in the world! Klopp and Guardiola are not going to leave Liverpool and Manchester City to take up the reigns in North London so they will inevitably have to look at smaller teams or the unemployed. The fact of the matter is, managers who are unemployed or at a lower team don’t tend to be part of the elite 10 per cent, the recruitment would have to be spot on.

When a team with an average manager replaces them after a run of bad form, it is true to say that there is a slight increase in initial output of results. But, this run of results is just a return to the norm. The 21st Club, a football consultancy agency, found that the amount of points earned by teams who stuck by their manager after bad form vs new managers brought in after a team’s bad run of form were pretty much the same. The change in manager was about as effective as giving the fans all lucky bracelets to wear. This is because most managers are in the same ability bracket; they’re not in the 10 per cent.

If it makes almost zero positive difference for an average manager to be sacked, how much will it affect Tottenham to sack their excellent one? Without even taking into account potential costs to the club in terms of buying and selling members of the first team, it could get a whole lot worse for them if he goes. I said before the Champions League final that it may be Tottenham’s last chance to challenge English football’s elite, their time to establish themselves is running out and I believe to get rid of Pochettino would be the quickest way to descend back to mediocrity. You should always be careful what you wish for when wanting any manager to be sacked, in my opinion, Tottenham need to be extra careful.