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France is all set to host and kick-off the Rugby World Cup on September 7 … heralding the start of 51 games over six weeks.
Will we see quick-paced, running rugby to take the breath away or will we be made to watch trundling packs mauling slowly forward, with teams too scared of making a mistake to be entertaining?
Is it just a formality for the all-conquering All Blacks to lift the Webb Ellis trophy? Will this showpiece event help to develop the game in the countries below the top tier, or will they go home crushed?
We are about to find out.
It seems an age since Johnny Wilkinson dropped the goal that won the last World Cup Final against Australia and put the seal on Clive Woodward’s master-plan.
The chances of a repeat performance are unlikely. Since that night in Sydney four years ago the England team has managed just 16 victories from 40 starts and lost 15 of the last 16 away from home, culminating in two disappointing defeats against France in their warm-up games, when England’s only points came from penalty kicks.
This dismal record, an unsettled team (with Coach Brian Ashton seemingly still not knowing who to select in several key positions) and a difficult schedule look likely to make the next month an uncomfortable one for England supporters.
If England manage to escape their tricky Pool A in second place (losing to South Africa but beating US, Samoa and Tonga) they will probably meet Australia as winners of a weak Pool B in the Quarter Finals.
England, having played the hard-hitting Samoans and Tongans may well be bruised by this stage and I can see a much fresher Wallaby side gaining revenge for the 1993 final.
The weak Pool B features Wales who will, as usual, carry a weight of home expectation likely to prove too heavy for them.
Their warm up games started disastrously. Only Coach Gareth Jenkins knows what possessed him to send his second and third-choice players to be crushed at Twickenham 62-5, adding more unnecessary pressure on him and his squad.
Although they improved to beat Argentina, their pack is unlikely to win enough quality possession for their mercurial backs to exploit against quality opposition. Wales should progress from their Pool by beating Japan, Canada and Fiji, but South Africa will not need to be at their best to claim their likely quarter-final meeting.
Pool C sees Italy, Scotland, Portugal and Romania competing to be runners-up to New Zealand. The key match here will be the Scots against the Italians and the growing band of rugby followers in Italy will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s Six Nations victory. I think they will get it, with Scotland having the worst away record of all the major nations in World Rugby.
The All Blacks’ first real test is likely to come in their quarter final against the Pool D runners up, the toughest group of all to call.
France, Ireland and Argentina will all need to be at their best to progress, although Georgia and Namibia have no chance.
French pride at being the hosts should see them through as Pool winners, leaving Ireland v Argentina, the last Pool match to be played, as one of the potential highlights of the early matches.
Argentina suffer from being the only major rugby playing nation not getting entry to either the southern hemisphere Tri-Nations or the European Six Nations.
They are the most improved side in World Rugby over the past two years and if their stars like Pichot, Hernandez, Ledesma and Ayerza all shine they could make it a difficult night for the Irish.
Brian O’Driscoll’s men are a well balanced team but their forwards will need to be in top form to slug in out with the Pumas’ pack. Sorry to say that I think it more likely that Argentine eyes will be smiling.
By the time the final four teams make it to the semi-finals they will have played five games of international rugby in a month, and although all the leading coaches are likely to use their full squads against the lesser nations, fitness of key players will be a big factor.
Most predict that Australia will meet New Zealand, and South Africa will meet France in two mouth-watering matches.
Even if the tournament is as disappointing as I fear for England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland it’s difficult not to be excited at the prospect of these games.
I only hope that the best teams play the expansive rugby they are all capable of, are not too conservative in their approach to these games, and that the eventual tournament winner is the team that uses a full repertoire of skills to entertain us all – and if we get an upset along the way, let’s hope it gives the extended rugby family in the newer rugby-playing nations the enthusiasm to keep developing the game worldwide.
Rugby Union
By Patrick Cummings
patrick.cummings@blueyonder.co.uk
