Flip through the latest issue of Gulf Weekly.
To be or not to be? That is the question. To start up or not to start up?
To surf the wave of entrepreneurship, and manoeuvre your surfboard around the forces of nature; or to sit by on the heavenly beach and watch the experience pass you by. Choose the latter, and life is boring, but at least you get to smell the roses, served to you in the exotic cocktails, while you rest in comfort, your internals at peace, and your mind tranquil.
These are the questions, figuratively speaking, that everyone wrestles with before they take the leap of faith into the dark ocean that is entrepreneurship.
Are you having that internal debate now, as I did 13 years ago, in the year 2000, when I started my first business? I had just graduated from Stanford, and I decided to move to Boston, and start a company, from what came to be my home, briefly. I have been involved in starting many more companies since then, more than I can count, but the first time is always more extreme. I remember the fear, the excitement, the tension, and the passion. The fear as payday approached, and the joy when we would achieve something.
When I came back to Bahrain, I remember the excitement of opening a new restaurant, or a new car rental company, or the exhilaration of starting a business in a new country, and expanding with it our presence, our prestige, and our significance. It’s all numb now, the ups and downs less extreme. I read a novel once about a guy who had a heroin addiction and how after the first time he did it, he always kept trying to get the exhilaration of that first high, but he never managed to. I think he died at the end of the novel.
Luckily, too much entrepreneurship probably won’t kill you, but the first time you do it, expect a wild ride on Puff the magic dragon, if you know what I mean. If you don’t, as I don’t, then think of it like a Disneyland roller coaster where there are no safety harnesses and you can actually fall off. Are you still interested in starting up your own business? If you are, and you’ve made it this far into the article, then let’s roll up our sleeves and talk some good old-fashioned economics. I don’t mean the circumstantial girlie stuff you read by some of today’s economists. I’m talking hardcore, Adam Smith, set in stone, talking from the grave kind of stuff.
I would advise that you start off with plain old supply-and-demand. You should start the process by first looking at what people will demand more of in the future. You should then pull out of that prediction an economic trend. You should look at which industries are expected to grow, and you should then focus on those areas for your new business. To succeed, an entrepreneur should avoid too much of the emotion-based decision-making where you start a business in a field because you like it or because it is currently a prestigious industry. It is always better to be a part of a growing industry from my experience, because a growing pie will mean more opportunities for everyone, including yourself.
What are the global trends? Which ones should you bet on? According to the World Health Organisation, in 2009, 3.4 billion people lived in cities. By 2050, this number will increase to 6.4 billion. Most of the growth is expected to be in cities in emerging markets like India, China, Brazil, and parts of the Middle East and Africa. So, property prices at the centres of major cities in these emerging markets will probably go up.
Also, the construction activity in these cities for roads, tunnels, flyovers and buildings will also increase to accommodate these additional people. Therefore, an entrepreneur should consider starting a property development company in these emerging cities or starting a construction business there.
Another trend is the growth of tourism in Dubai. According to the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 10 million tourists visited Dubai in 2012. The official target, as reported by the state news agency WAM, is to reach 20 million tourists by 2020. It is quite safe to assume that they will achieve this based on their past performance.
So, it’s safe to assume that there will be more tourists in Dubai every year for the next 10 years or so. Therefore, a start-up that focuses on catering to the tourists in Dubai will have a relatively high likelihood of success. Restaurants, hotels and car rental companies all stand to gain from this trend. Of course you will need to find a way to reach the customer and beat the competition, but that is true of every company in every industry.
As an entrepreneur, you should always focus on providing a great product or service. If you do this in a shrinking industry, you will always be going against the tide, whereas if you are in a growing industry, you can benefit from the high tide.
Another trend is the shift of content and buying onto the internet in the Middle East and Africa. Online news publications and e-commerce websites, targeting this region, stand to gain and are good choices for new business ideas. Industries to avoid because of this trend would be the print newspaper business, the retail shops that sell books, DVDs or CDs and the electronics stores business.
