Festive difficulty for football

It may well be the season to be jolly yet Crystal Palace chairman, Steve Parish, was feeling far from jovial as he handed manager Alan Pardew the sack – unfortunately not one full of gifts but one that contained his P45 and presumably a ticket to the commentary box.

The Eagles had initially soared when Pardew took the reins as he guided them through the murky waters of the relegation zone in January 2015 before occupying the European places at one point in their campaign.

He also managed an FA Cup final in which they were beaten in extra-time by Manchester United. However their form nosedived and in this calendar year they have managed just six wins and a total of 26 points from 36 league games, the worst of any club in the top four divisions.

Indeed a heavy investment over the summer brought the likes of Christian Benteke and Yohan Cabaye to Palace yet they have accumulated only 15 points this season. Sam Allardyce has been confirmed to being the replacement and it is hoped that he will last more than the 67 days he managed with England.

To be fair, at club level, he is seen as being as close to a guarantee that his team avoid relegation as it is possible to get. The football they play may not be pretty but it is effective. Big Sam has never been relegated as a manager, which includes saving Sunderland last season from what appeared to be a doomed position.

Another man looking over his shoulder is the American Bob Bradley who only took over at Swansea City from Francesco Guidolin ten games ago. However his record in that time is not good meaning their survival hopes look slim.

This is not uncharted territory as Swansea was in the relegation zone at this stage last season yet recovered to finish midtable.  However Bradley has managed just eight points, only one of which came while playing away from home.

He recognises that the intensive Christmas spell, loved by fans and loathed by players, will determine his future.  In a recent poll 85 per cent of Swansea fans have already made their decision to send him back over the Atlantic! 

The American does have two home games against midtable opposition, West Ham and Bournemouth, to save his job, followed by an intriguing visit to Palace. Yet despite facing fanciable fixtures over this festive furlong Swansea does not have the easiest task this Christmas.

That statistical award (based upon the current league position of their opponents) goes to Manchester United. They have two matches at home against Sunderland (18th) and Middlesborough (14th) with only one away game at West Ham United (13th). 

West Ham themselves and Everton are other beneficiaries. The side with the toughest test is Stoke City who face away trips to the top two, Chelsea and Liverpool, before welcoming Watford in the New Year.

Mark Hughes may be collecting lumps of coal rather than points this Christmas. Other sides also facing an uphill battle are Hull City and Tottenham Hotspur. That’s not good news for a Hull side that has floundered since Mike Phelan was confirmed as manager.

It has been a drastic turnaround since two wins in August brought him the (some believe cursed) Manager of the Month Award. The Tigers have their tails between their legs after a record-equalling six consecutive away defeats in which they have failed to score a single goal.

At least there is some comfort around the corner for fans, if not club accountants, as the winter transfer window will open on 1st January to offer hope. Two signings have already been made with Joey Barton returning to Burnley after his failure north of the border while Manchester City are waiting to officially register Gabriel Jesus.

One club with money to burn is Chelsea after agreeing to sell Oscar to Chinese Super League club, Shanghai SIPG, for a whopping £60m.  This represents a staggering £35m profit since signing the 25-year-old Brazil Internacional in 2012, made all the more remarkable as he cannot get into Antonio Conte’s side.

Sitting six points clear at the top after their tenth successive win they do not look like a side that needs much assistance having found a formation that works after their humiliating defeat to Arsenal. However Conte will apparently be using the funds to bolster both his defence and midfield.

He looks like a man to be trusted with Abramovich’s wallet as N’Golo Kante looks to be in prime position to collect a second successive Premier League winner’s medal while the success of David Luiz is as surprising this year as Leicester were last year.

It is not only their current form that is daunting for other contenders. Over the last seven seasons the leader on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title on six occasions.  The only anomaly was Manchester City in 2013/4. 

Furthermore, on each of the four previous occasions that Chelsea has been top at this time (2004, 05, 09 and 2014) they have gone on to win the title. That said, Arsenal has overturned a Christmas points deficit every time they have won the title. 

Unfortunately for them, that was a long time ago (2003/4). They also hold the record for the biggest points deficit overturned when, in 1997, they came from sixth position, 13 points behind Manchester United, to lift the trophy.

At the other end of the table it looks statistically dire for the side at the bottom.  Since the Premier League was formed in 1992 only three teams have managed to avoid relegation. Fans looking to Santa’s reindeer to help pull them clear don’t have to go too far back for inspiration.

The last team to achieve the feat was Leicester (2014/5) who had been bottom for four and a half months to survive – and look what they went on to achieve! The pick of the fixtures is the late game on New Year’s Eve when Liverpool host Manchester City, the winners of which will no doubt continue celebrating for the rest of the year!